BCS bowl predictions

For starters, I might as well give the top 18 BCS teams.
Florida
Alabama
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati
Boise State
Georgia Tech
LSU
Pittsburgh
Ohio State
Oregon
Oklahoma State
Iowa
Penn State
Virginia Tech
Wisconsin
Stanford
USC
The top 14 teams are eligible for "at-large" berths.
Let me give you those standings again, with teams color-coded by projected losses.
no losses
1 loss
2 loss
3 loss
4 loss
Florida
Alabama loss to Florida
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati
Boise State
Georgia Tech
LSU Loss to Mississippi/Arkansas
Pittsburgh Loss to Cincinnati
Ohio State
Oregon
Oklahoma State
Iowa Loss to Minnesota
Penn State
Virginia Tech
Wisconsin Loss to Hawaii (Hawaii refs @ Hawaii are well, Hawaii refs @ Hawaii)
Stanford
USC Loss to Arizona

As you can see, there are 13 teams projected to finish with less than 3 losses. 3 of them are SEC teams, meaning that one of them (the lowest-ranked) will be ineligible. That will be LSU, unless Florida International, Chatanooga or Auburn can pull a big upset. And even then, LSU still could be left in the dust if Florida and Alabama are both 1-loss. So that leaves 12. Even if Iowa and Wisconsin win out, only 2 big ten teams could get in. No matter how you slice it, we have 12 to fill 10 spots. As a quick refresher, here is a color-coded list of teams that could get into the BCS.
BCS qualified
Not BCS qualified
Florida
Alabama
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati
Boise State
Georgia Tech
LSU
Pittsburgh
Ohio State
Oregon
Oklahoma State
Iowa
Penn State
Virginia Tech
Wisconsin
Stanford
USC

Most likely, one of my teams hilighted in red will lose somewhere unexpected. Oklahoma State could go down to Oklahoma, Penn State to Sparta, Boise State to Nevada etc. Then, Pittsburgh may drop out of the top 14 if they lose to Cincinnati. So with 1 upset, and Pittsburgh dropping out, we have 10 teams! And then for my upset, you may not believe this but Nevada will beat Boise State. No joke. So this leaves 10 BCS teams for 10 slots, those teams are:
Florida
Alabama
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati
Georgia Tech
Ohio State
Oregon
Oklahoma State
Penn State
But it's more complicated than that. Say Cincy loses to Pitt. Both would probably be in the top 14. Who gets left out? Boise State wins, who loses instead? But under the circumstances that the ten teams listed above make the BCS, the matchups I think would be:
NC game: Florida vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Penn State
After that long post, I'm off.