Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Bowl projections (all of them!)

After a lot of analysing, here is my bowl projections for November 25th.
NC game: Florida vs. Texas
Orange bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Iowa
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon State
Fiesta Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Boise State

GMAC: Temple vs. Middle Tennessee State*
Alamo: Michigan State vs. Oklahoma
Liberty: Arkansas vs. Houston
Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss
Papajohns.com: South Carolina vs. Rutgers
International: South Florida vs. Ohio
Gator: Clemson vs. Pittsburgh
Capital One: Penn State vs. LSU
Outback: Wisconsin vs. Georgia
Chick-Fill-A: Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky
Insight: Minnesota vs. Missouri
Texas: Iowa State vs. Navy
Sun: Texas Tech vs. USC
Armed Forces: Air Force vs. Southern Miss
Holiday: Nebraska vs. Oregon
Humanitarian: Nevada vs. Bowling Green*
Champs Sports: Northwestern vs. Miami (FL)
EagleBank: Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Independence: Texas A&M vs. Auburn
Music City: North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Emerald: Florida State vs. Stanford
Meineke Car Care: Boston College vs. West Virginia
Pizza: UCLA vs. Central Michigan
Hawaii: East Carolina vs. Idaho
Poinsettia: Arizona vs. Utah
Maaco: Cal vs. BYU
New Orleans: UCF vs. Troy
St. Petersburg: Connecticut vs. Marshall
New Mexico: Wyoming vs. Fresno State
Bowl eligible but missed the cut: Kent State, Louisiana-Monroe
*Replacement team

College football picks week 13

Another week, another set of picks.
This is beyond humiliating.
3-10
Pittsburgh -0
West Virginia +0
PICK: PITT

Rutgers -3
Louisville +3
PICK: RUTG

Wyoming +3
Colorado State -3
PICK: WYO

Temple -3
Ohio +3
PICK: TEMP

Alabama -10
Auburn +10
PICK: ALA

Nevada +13.5
Boise State -13.5
PICK: NEV

Wake Forest -5
Duke +5
PICK: DUKE

Clemson -3
South Carolina +3
PICK: CLEM

Southern Mississippi +6
East Carolina -6
PICK: ECU

Oklahoma State +9.5
Oklahoma -9.5
PICK: OKST

Utah State +2.5
Idaho -2.5
PICK: IDA

Boston College -6
Maryland +6
PICK: BCOLL

Troy -9.5
Louisiana-Laffayette +9.5
PICK: TROY

NFL picks week 12

I have the rest of the week off from school, so expect lots of updates. BCS standings overview+ ALL bowl projections hopefully tonight/tommorrow. Also this week, I have my friend Rusty_Shackleford from Erepublik (it's a site where there's basically an alternative universe, join at http://www.erepublik.com/en/referrer/Ivar+Gizteb) picking as well. And now for NFL picks.
ME: 1-2
RUSTY: 1-2

GB -11
DET +11
MY PICK: GB
RUSTY'S PICK: GB

OAK +13.5
DAL -13.5
MY PICK: OAK
RUSTY'S PICK: OAK

NYG -7
DEN +7
MY PICK: NYG
RUSTY'S PICK: NYG

IND -3
HOU +3
MY PICK: IND
RUSTY'S PICK: IND

CLE +14
CIN -14
MY PICK: CIN
RUSTY'S PICK: CLE

CHI +10.5
MIN -10.5
MY PICK: MIN
RUSTY'S PICK: MIN

WAS +9.5
PHI -9.5
MY PICK: WAS
RUSTY'S PICK: PHI

MIA -3
BUF +3
MY PICK: MIA
RUSTY'S PICK: MIA

SEA -3
STL +3
MY PICK: SEA
RUSTY'S PICK: SEA

TB +12.5
ATL -12.5
MY PICK: TB
RUSTY'S PICK: ATL

CAR +3
NYJ -3
MY PICK: CAR
RUSTY'S PICK: NYJ

JAC +3
SF -3
MY PICK: JAC
RUSTY'S PICK: N/A

KC +13.5
SD -13.5
MY PICK: SD
RUSTY'S PICK: KC

NE +3
NO -3
MY PICK: NO
RUSTY'S PICK: NE

ARI -0
TEN +0
MY PICK: TEN
RUSTY'S PICK: TEN

PIT -0
BAL +0
MY PICK: PIT
RUSTY'S PICK: PIT
BCS overview soon, I didn't get around to it yesterday, maybe I can do it while avoiding a screaming match between my mom, sister and aunt.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Week 11 NFL picks

THIS WEEK: 7-5
How do I not have 16 picks? Huh.
Picks for week 11 of the NFL:
Cleveland +3
Detroit -3
PICK: DET
Buffalo +8.5
Jacksonville -8.5
PICK: JAC
Pittsburgh -10
Kansas City +10
PICK: PIT
Indianapolis -1.5
Baltimore +1.5
PICK: IND
Atlanta +7
New York Giants -7
PICK: ATL
San Fransisco +6
Green Bay -6
PICK: GB
PUSH
Seattle +10.5
Minnesota -10.5
PICK: MIN
Washington +11
Dallas -11
PICK: WAS
New Orleans -10.5
Tampa Bay +10.5
PICK: NO
Arizona -9
St. Louis +9
PICK: ARI
New York Jets +10.5
New England -10.5
PICK: NYJ
Cincinnati -9
Oakland +9
PICK: CIN
Philadelphia -3
Chicago +3
PICK: PHI
Tennessee +4
Houston -4
PICK: TEN
Easy prop bet of the week:
CIN VS. OAK 1st half over/under 17.5 OVER

BCS bowl predictions

For starters, I might as well give the top 18 BCS teams.
Florida
Alabama
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati
Boise State
Georgia Tech
LSU
Pittsburgh
Ohio State
Oregon
Oklahoma State
Iowa
Penn State
Virginia Tech
Wisconsin
Stanford
USC
The top 14 teams are eligible for "at-large" berths.
Let me give you those standings again, with teams color-coded by projected losses.
no losses
1 loss
2 loss
3 loss
4 loss
Florida
Alabama loss to Florida
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati
Boise State
Georgia Tech
LSU Loss to Mississippi/Arkansas
Pittsburgh Loss to Cincinnati
Ohio State
Oregon
Oklahoma State
Iowa Loss to Minnesota
Penn State
Virginia Tech
Wisconsin Loss to Hawaii (Hawaii refs @ Hawaii are well, Hawaii refs @ Hawaii)
Stanford
USC Loss to Arizona

As you can see, there are 13 teams projected to finish with less than 3 losses. 3 of them are SEC teams, meaning that one of them (the lowest-ranked) will be ineligible. That will be LSU, unless Florida International, Chatanooga or Auburn can pull a big upset. And even then, LSU still could be left in the dust if Florida and Alabama are both 1-loss. So that leaves 12. Even if Iowa and Wisconsin win out, only 2 big ten teams could get in. No matter how you slice it, we have 12 to fill 10 spots. As a quick refresher, here is a color-coded list of teams that could get into the BCS.
BCS qualified
Not BCS qualified
Florida
Alabama
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati
Boise State
Georgia Tech
LSU
Pittsburgh
Ohio State
Oregon
Oklahoma State
Iowa
Penn State
Virginia Tech
Wisconsin
Stanford
USC

Most likely, one of my teams hilighted in red will lose somewhere unexpected. Oklahoma State could go down to Oklahoma, Penn State to Sparta, Boise State to Nevada etc. Then, Pittsburgh may drop out of the top 14 if they lose to Cincinnati. So with 1 upset, and Pittsburgh dropping out, we have 10 teams! And then for my upset, you may not believe this but Nevada will beat Boise State. No joke. So this leaves 10 BCS teams for 10 slots, those teams are:
Florida
Alabama
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati
Georgia Tech
Ohio State
Oregon
Oklahoma State
Penn State
But it's more complicated than that. Say Cincy loses to Pitt. Both would probably be in the top 14. Who gets left out? Boise State wins, who loses instead? But under the circumstances that the ten teams listed above make the BCS, the matchups I think would be:
NC game: Florida vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Penn State
After that long post, I'm off.

College football picks week 12

This week:
10-5 FINAL
Long break, here are picks:
CAPS IS MY PICK
OSU -12.5
mich +12.5
C'mon, run up the score Tressel. Uggh.

kent state +10.5
TEMPLE -10.5
Yup, I was the only person that realized Temple has 2 losses.

MISSISSIPPI STATE +11.5
arkansas -11.5
What happened to your almost-beating LSU self? Seriously.

PENN STATE -3
michigan state +3
Hey, at least I'm not a homer like Jim Branstetter (cough cough)

california +8
STANFORD -8
Note to self: Toby Gerhart isn't the greatest thing since sliced bread.

LSU +4
ole miss -4
I think after going so fast all of the oxygen got sucked out of Jordan Jefferson's brain.

air force +10
BYU -10
Non big-6 games are the key to getting picks right. Absolutely ridicolous line here.

uab +13
EAST CAROLINA -13
East Carolina is one to surprise.

LTECH +9
fresno state -9
2 near-losses against ranked teams in a row wins my respect.

DUKE +19
miami-19
Barely, just barely.

HAWAII -3
san jose state +3
Hawaii always gets all the calls. That's why I pick them.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL +45
florida -45
Wow, Florida is better than expected. How about I just stay away from any game with a big-6 team.

ARMY +2.5
north texas -2.5
Yup, definately stick to non big-6 games.

oregon -6
ARIZONA +6
Neither of these teams look very good.

ARKANSAS STATE +10
middle tennessee -10
I need to convince myself that the Iowa game was a long time ago.