Seeds 3/8/09

1's: PITT, UNC, UCONN, MSU

The Huskies fall despite a loss to Pitt, but Pitt's a good team and it was pretty close so Uconn stays as a #1.

2's: DUKE, OKLA, MEMP, LOU

Everybody stays the same here, with the exception of Louisville falling. I saw them play in the 2nd half against West Virginia and there free throws are just horrid.

3's: WASH, VILL, KAN, WAKE

Mizzouri isn't the explosive team I thought they were. Washington and Villanova are dangerous, though Kansas and Wake are just too on and off.

4's: FSU, SYRA, PUR, CLEM

Syracuse's win against Marquette impressed me, even without Dominique James. Others are just sliding up right up the S-Curve.

5's: ILL, UTAH, MIZZ, XAV

Mizzouri and Xavier, what exactly happened? One of you got blown away by a bubble team, the other lost to Richmond? Either somebody messed up the scores, or Mizzouri and Xavier aren't the teams I thought they were.

6's: AZST, BUT, CAL, BYU

I don't know how some of these teams got this high. I din't know you could get this high by sliding right up the S-curve.

7's: UCLA, GONZ, DAY, OKST

I came to the sad reality with more investigation today that I had overestimated Dayton and Oklahoma State. They're both still dangerous teams, though.

8's: LSU, BOSCOLL, MARQ, WISC

Marquette's season has come all crashing down on their heads in the past week or 2. Boston College and Wisconsin I've promoted to lock status, and they're both dangerous.

9's: WVU, TEXAM, TEX, OSU

Texas A&M is yes, you're not reading wrong, my pick to win the big-12 tourney. They're the hottest team in the Big 12 as they proved in their crushing of Missouri today.

10's: UNLV, ARI, MINN, TENN

This is an array of dangerous teams with a weak group of 2 seeds. Watch out for another Davidsonish run. The Golden Gophers are better that other think.

11's: DAVID, UTST, VATECH, SIENA

Davidson, Utah State and Siena are all in danger if they fail to win their conference tourneys. They're all hanging onto that lifeline, they're getting the 11 instead of the 13 because they'll actually be considered shall they not win their conf. tourney.

12's: MICH, KANST, SC, STMARY

Michigan, Kansas State and South Carolina are part of my last 4 in. I know they're in red below, but I messed those numbers up.

13's: AMER, VIRCOMM, FLA, ROBMOR

American could definately go higher, but won't. I realized I left my projected NEC champ (Robert Morris) out of the last bracket.

14's: WESTKEN, NIWA, WEBST, SFA

North Iowa takes the spot Creighton vacated by losing badly to Illinois State.The others are just following the S Curve.

15's: CORN, NDST, BUFF, ETENNST

I'm calling these Blah teams. Blah Blah Blah Blah.

16's: RADF, MOREHEADST, MORGST, ALAST, CSNORT

More Blah teams! Yeah!

Red- Clinched a bid

Blue- Locked but not projected conf. champ

Green- Projected conf. champ but not locked

Brown- Locked and projected conf. champ

Looking back: Saturday

Let's overview what happened today. 4 teams punched their tourney tickets. Morehead State, Radford, Cornell and East Tennessee State all have clinched. #1 UCONN fell to #3 PITT for the second time this season. Texas A&M got an impressive win against MIZZOU. Rhode Island lost a must-win against UMASS. Florida popped Kentucky's bubble, and Seton Hall popped Cinncinati's. "Bubble Team" Creighton got smashed by Illinois State the night after a narrow escape against Witchita State. Memphis showed their the real deal by blowing out Tulane.

Bracket Needs

There are 14 teams here with 7 spots avalible.

This is unlike others of it's kind because it goes over what teams have to do to get in. Big thanks to CBS sportsline for the info they gave me here.

Virginia Tech- Near lock, needs to beat FSU to lock

Maryland- Needs to reach ACC final

Dayton- Near lock, needs 2 A-10 tourney wins to lock

Providence- Needs to reach big east semis

Michigan- Near lock, needs to get 1 B-10 tourney win to feel comfortable, 2 to lock

Minnesota- Near lock, needs to get 1 B-10 tourney win to feel comfortable, 2 to lock

Penn State- Needs 2 B-10 tourney wins to feel comfortable, 3 to lock

Oklahoma State- Near lock, needs 1 B-12 tourney win to lock

Kansas State- Needs 2 B-12 tourney wins to feel comfortable, 3 to lock

BYU- Near lock, needs to beat Air Force to lock

New Mexico- Needs to reach m-west tourney final

SDSU- Needs to reach m-west tourney final

Arizona- Needs 1 P-10 tourney win to feel comfortable, 2 to lock

South Carolina- Needs 2 SEC tourney wins to feel comfortable, 3 to lock

Teams in Blue are in

Teams in Red are out 

Bracket Seeds

Colors updated after the VMI Radford game

Seeds and notes updated before start of games today

Here are the seeds:

1: UCONN, PITT, UNC, MSU

Oklahoma's not here because teams that rely a lot on one big player tend to fall apart in the sweet 16 or elite 8. Michigan State is just here because I couldn't find somebody to fill their slot. Face it, either Uconn or Pitt will get the top slot because one will be coming off a win to the other.

2: LOU, DUKE, OKLA, MEMP

Louisville could be a number one, (they're very close to it) but I think they'll end up with a 2, because they're kind of being shadowed over by Uconn and Pitt. They deserve a 1, but they won't get it.

3: MIZZ, WASH, VILL, XAV

Mizzou and Washington are 2 teams that can get on hot streaks and stay on hot streaks. They're the kind of team that can make a run to the final four. If Villanova plays their first 2 games in Philly, then watch out. They can carry their home-town momentum into the later rounds. 

4: KAN, WAKE, FSU, PUR

Kansas is down here because they just got sunk by 19 points to a BUBBLE team. 19 is unacceptable, but to a bubble team? Wake just hasn't been well lately. I'm iffy about putting a team that's 6-4 in their last 10 any higher than a 4. Florida state could be shortlived being this high.

5: CLEM, ILL, SYRA, UTAH

Clemson's here because of that winning streak they rode early in the season. Illinois and Utah have the potential to beat anybody, but it's not as realistic as Mizzouri and Washington. Syracuse is here because the options were slim. 

6: MARQ, AZST, DAY, BUT

Marquette doesn't have Dominique James and they've lost 3 straight. Butler's been in this kind of situation before, they can make a run to the Elite 8 if they get to play in Indianapolis.

7: WV, CAL, BYU, OKST

A four pack of dangerous teams, all could make a deep run given a matchup against Memphis or Oklahoma, or possibly even Duke. I've got a hunch that these teams will make turmoil for the 2 seeds.

8: UCLA, GONZ, LSU ,MINN

With the exception of an under-the-radar Minnesota team, the other 8's are here because of good records. They've beaten nobody, and I don't see how UCLA, GOnzaga or LSU can go any higher than 7.

9: BOSCOLL, WISC, TEX, OSU

Boston College is getting closer and closer to lock status, with that win over UNC looking more and more valuable. Wisconsin and Minnesota could make runs as far as the Elite 8, but they won't because they're 9 seeds.

10: UNLV, ARI, TEXAM, TENN

Arizona just has too flashy an array of quality wins to leave them out. A&M is one of the few bubble teams that has been actually winning lately. Tennessee is 7-8 agianst the RPI top 75 in the 8th best conference.

11: UTST, DAVID, CREI, SIENA

Utah State will win the WAC tourney, and because of their record, get an 11. The others get here by being good teams and by winning their conference tourneys. 

12: PROV, RI, MARY, VATECH

Providence gets here because of the conference record in such a good top to bottom league like the Big East. Rhode Island gets in because they're not losing. Maryland's wins over UNC and MSU are they're savior, whil PSU gets in because of the road win against MSU.

13: FLA, STMARY, AMER, WESTKEN

Virginia Tech gets in because of their abilty to win on the road. St. Mary's wins the WCC to get here. I have a hunch that Florida can win the SEC.

14: VIRCOMM, WAST, WEBST, SFA

The only one of these that isn't self explanatory is Washington State. See my earlier post about them. They'll win the Pac-10 toureney because they've beaten 3 of the pac-10's top 5 teams that are all in the top 50. They'll be even better if they beat Washington today.

15: CORN, NDST, BUFF, ETENNST

These are just no-name conference winners. The guys that have to go in the bracket and never ever do anything. 

16: RADF, MORHEADST, MORGST, ALAST, CSNORT

Austin Peay and Radford all play conf. champ. games today and if they lose they'll give up their spots to MOREHEADST and VMI.  

Red- Mathematically locked a bid

Blue- Practically locked a bid and not projected conf. champ

Green- Projected Conf. Champ and not practically locked

Brown- Projected conf. champ and practically locked

Ivar  

Pac-10

The Pac-10 will get 6 teams in. If you count on your fingers you get 5 logical ones. UCLA, Cal, Arizona State, Arizona and Washington. USC, mabye? Lost 6 of 7, and have 3 losses against RPI 100+. I'll pass. Well let's see, who's won 3 games in a row, all agianst conference opponents in the RPI top 50? Yes, Washington State will win the pac-10 tourney. They're one of the hottest teams in the country, and they can do some danger come March (wait, it's already March!) 

2-26-09 Games to watch

Tonight's games to watch are:

Miami (FL) @ Virginia

Temple vs. LaSalle

Cincinatti @ West Virginia

Michigan vs. Purdue

Minnesota @ Illinois

Arizona @ Washington State

USC @ California

St. Mary's (CA) @ Pepperdine

Utah State vs. Hawaii

Resume Review: Virginia Tech

I've got the Hokies in, because they have the strength of a Cinderella. They can go out, and unexpectadly beat a good team. They did so last night against Clemson, and did earlier against then #1 Wake Forest. They've got 2 losses against RPI 100 or above, but both came more than 2 weeks before Christmas and can easily be shaken off, because teams change once February starts. They've got games against Duke, North Carolina and FSU. They've already beat the other 2 of the ranked ACC teams, and I see their potential to win 2 of those games. Especially when they knocked off Clemson last night.

Resume Review: Georgetown

I'm not a comitee member, but from past history, I'd guess the Hoyas are just in. I don't think they deserved it, being 6-11 against the top 75. They've got the marquee wins that others are lacking, but they got them during the beginning of the season when they were the phenomonal Hoyas. They're 2-8 in their last 10, with the 2 wins against #183 Rutgers and #163 South Florida. With that bad of a resume, I couldn't care about a #1 SOS. They've played the good games, but haven't cashed in.

Resume Review: Arizona

Arizona's in because of their sheer force of quality wins. Not many other teams can boast wins against Washington, Gonzaga, SDSU, Kansas, USC and UCLA. They've got 5 (count 'em, 5) wins against the RPI top 50 (with one against #53 too). Their losses to fellow bubble teams were at the beginning of the season, they're a new team now. I just put them here to say why I disagree with others and that they're a lock.

Resume Review: South Carolina

I'm not as sold on the Gamecoks as others, but I still project them as in.  They've beaten fellow SEC bubble teams Florida and they swept Kentucky. Others seem to shake off the loss to the College of Charleston, and the fact that their 1-4 against the RPI top 50. They're in because of a 8-5 conference records, which not many other bubble teams can post. It's the weak SEC though, but it's still impressive. 

Resume Review: Michigan

Michigan is probably in. They're hard to deny because of wins against Duke, Illinois, UCLA, Penn State and Minnesota. They have no bad loss except a recent one against Iowa. That's what one might think. But the reality is, Illinois hasn't done much itself, Duke and UCLA have both been dissapointments, Minnesota and Penn State are fading fast. They're 5-10 against the RPI top 75, and are 11-11 against the top 200. Not 100, 200. They have a LOSING record against the top 100. They're lone road win against the RPI top 100 is against Northwestern. They're out as of now.

Overratted/Underratted

Welcome, this is my sports blog.

Minnesota is extremely underrated. They have good wins against: LVILLE, ILL, OSU, PSU and @WISC. They have an RPI of 36 and a SOS of 50. Oklahoma is overratted. They CANNOT play without Blake Griffin. Their only quality wins are against Purdue and Texas, and they have a loss to a non-bubble team in Arkansas. More later today.